Simulating an epidemic

Summary by Krater

An explainer simulation of how epidemics spread using the SIR model, illustrating the effects of social distancing, travel restrictions, and quarantine measures.

From the video

Answers: How do epidemics spread and how do social distancing and quarantine affect the curve?

• epidemic simulation
• SIR model
• social distancing
• quarantine and isolation
• travel restrictions
• basic reproductive number R0

What it concludes

• The growth rate of an infection is very sensitive to daily interactions, probability of infection, and duration of illness.
• Quickly identifying and isolating infectious cases halts the epidemic in its tracks, but missing even 20 percent of cases results in significantly more total infections.
• Social distancing slows the spread of disease, but small imperfections prolong the epidemic.
• Reducing transit between communities late in the game has a very limited effect on stopping the spread.
• Shared central locations dramatically speed up the spread of an infection.